DOWNLOAD JAKARTA: Reliance on Chinese Investment May Increase Under New Leadership Summary: Jakarta’s new administration may rely on Chinese investment more to pursue its goal of 8% economic growth. Beijing’s monopolization of nickel in Indonesia may prove problematic for Washington in the future. Development: On 20 October, Prabowo Subianto swore in as the eighth president … Continue reading Eagle Eye 459
Eagle Eye 453
Download IRAN: Jerusalem Strike on Tehran Leaders Will Likely Escalate Ongoing Proxy War Summary: Jerusalem’s most recent strike on Iranian leaders will likely lead to a heightened conflict with Tehran. Tehran has vowed to retaliate, which will likely lead to an increase in the frequency of alternating attacks. Tehran’s retaliation will likely involve the use … Continue reading Eagle Eye 453
Eagle Eye 451
Download YEMEN: Houthi Rebels Will Likely Shut Down All Trade Conducting in the Red Sea Summary: On 6 March, Houthi militants ramped up attacks, causing fatalities for the first time. This escalation underscores the growing threat posed by the Houthi rebels to maritime security in the area. Given the increased frequency and intensity of these … Continue reading Eagle Eye 451
Eagle Eye 450
Download CHINA: Poor Working Conditions Will Not Likely Impact Cyber Operations Summary: A recent data leak revealed frustrations over working conditions within a Chinese state-sponsored private hacking company I-Soon. Hackers across the state will likely share these conditions and views. Despite Beijing’s increased cyberspace emphasis, the working conditions of its cybersecurity specialists remain lacking. The … Continue reading Eagle Eye 450
Eagle Eye 449
Download ARMENIA: Ceasing Participation in Treaty Organization Likely Part of Broader Shift Summary: Yerevan’s announcement that Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely prompt further distancing from Russia, a full withdrawal from the CSTO, and deeper ties with France. Development: On 23 February, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced … Continue reading Eagle Eye 449
Eagle Eye 446
Download GEORGIA: New Prime Minister Unlikely to Significantly Alter Foreign Relations Summary: Despite statements by new Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, Tbilisi will probably not take definitive steps towards European Union (EU) membership or significantly alter its relations with Russia. Development: On 8 February, Tbilisi officially appointed Irakli Kobakhidze, former chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream … Continue reading Eagle Eye 446
Eagle Eye 445
Download RUSSIA: Eurasian Economic Union Meeting Likely to Improve Energy Exports Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) meeting will likely lead to increased economic cooperation within the EEU, decreasing the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia. Armenia will likely have less participation in this growth due to tensions between Moscow and Yerevan. Development: On 2 February, … Continue reading Eagle Eye 445
Eagle Eye 444
Download MALI: Broken Peace Deal Will Likely Augment Internal Security Strategy Summary: The dissolution of a peace deal will likely enhance Bamako’s capabilities and influence against internal rebel groups. Development: On 25 January, Bamako spokesperson Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga announced the termination of the 2015 peace deal with Tuareg rebel groups. Bamako based this decision on … Continue reading Eagle Eye 444
Eagle Eye 443
Download RUSSIA: North Korean Missiles Likely Intended to Overwhelm Ukrainian Missile Defense Summary: Moscow likely intends to use short-range ballistic missiles imported from Pyongyang to increase the number of successful strikes against Kyiv’s civilian population centers by launching multiple missiles at once. Development: On 10 January, members from the Conflict Armament Research Organization found the … Continue reading Eagle Eye 443
Eagle Eye 442
Download ISRAEL-IRAN: Tehran Will Likely Resume Using Hamas as Proxy Toward Jerusalem Summary: Tehran will likely continue using proxies for its dirty work to avoid the consequences of its actions. A recent ceasefire in the war likely resulted from background actors trying to plan for short- and long-term intentions. Background: On 7 October, Iran-backed Hamas … Continue reading Eagle Eye 442