Download RUSSIA: Foreign Recruitment for War Effort Likely Due to Growing Desperation Summary: Moscow has recruited and coerced third-country nationals to fight in Ukraine. This almost certainly reveals a growing desperation in the face of mounting casualties, inability to achieve military objectives, and potential domestic upheaval. Background: From February 2022 to January 2026, the Russian … Continue reading Eagle Eye 491
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DOwnload RUSSIA: European Union Secondary Sanctions Likely to Reduce Oil Evasion Summary: Expanded European Union (EU) secondary sanctions will likely reduce Russia’s ability to evade energy restrictions. In turn, this would probably increase Moscow’s reliance on narrower trade partnerships and less transparent logistics networks. Development: On 9 February, the EU proposed a new sanctions package targeting third-country ports and commercial … Continue reading Eagle Eye 489
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Download RUSSIA: Cloud-Based Phishing Campaign Likely to Increase Malware’s Resilience Summary: A newly identified phishing campaign targeting Russian users will likely increase cybercriminal resilience by abusing legitimate cloud services to distribute Amnesia RAT and ransomware. Development: On 24 January, cybersecurity researchers identified a multi-stage phishing campaign targeting users in Russia that delivers a remote access … Continue reading Eagle Eye 487
Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
Download CHINA: Non-Military Actions Likely Intended to Increase Positive Perception of Country Summary: Recent anti-China rhetoric in the Pacific, Beijing’s non-military responses, and its diplomatic missions worldwide likely suggest that Beijing is seeking to project an image of a peaceful country globally through diplomatic efforts. This likely represents Beijing’s attempt to counter its national image … Continue reading Eagle Eye 485 – Fall 2025 Special Edition
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Download RUSSIA: Moscow Likely to Sustain Operations Through Use of Unconventional Tactics Summary: On 11 November 2025, Russian forces launched intensified assaults around Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast) and Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast), claiming significant territorial gains. Open-source imagery and video footage suggest the employment of unconventional and improvised tactics, including the use of motorbikes and heavily modified … Continue reading Eagle Eye 484
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DOWNLOAD MOROCCO: Western Sahara Resolution Likely to Result in Reforms, Economic Growth Summary: The United Nations (UN) Security Council recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, opening the region to new trade, investment, and infrastructure development alongside Rabat’s $15 billion pledge for social infrastructure investments. Rabat will likely leverage the increase in revenue from the Western … Continue reading Eagle Eye 482
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Download RUSSIA: Statement on Azerbaijan Jet Crash Likely Caused by Need for Strong Relations Summary: President Vladimir Putin’s admission of involvement in the Azerbaijani jet crash last year likely reveals Moscow’s growing need for stronger relations with the few countries in its grasp. This acknowledgement will probably result in renewed relations between the two former Soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 479
Eagle Eye 478
DOWNLOAD MOLDOVA: Russian Pressure Very Likely to Intensify Following Election Results Summary: Moldova’s pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) gained Parliament seats in the 28 September elections, likely strengthening President Maia Sandu’s European Union (EU) integration plan. This victory will very likely increase Russian pressure on the country. Development: On 28 September, Moldovan voters gave … Continue reading Eagle Eye 478
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Download DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Cobalt Export Quotas Unlikely to Succeed Summary: While Kinshasa’s opening of cobalt exports will likely result in a slight short-term increase in the economy, the cobalt quota system will almost certainly have a negligible overall impact. Background: On 21 September, Kinshasa stated that it would raise the current cobalt export … Continue reading Eagle Eye 477
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Download POLAND: Moscow Will Likely Continue Drone Incursions into Airspace Summary: Moscow will likely continue to violate Polish airspace with drones as a to test security agreements between the North Atlantic Trade Organization (NATO) members. Despite the drone operations, Moscow will almost certainly avoid another significant military operation. Background: On 9 September, Polish officials reported … Continue reading Eagle Eye 476