Download RUSSIA: Statement on Azerbaijan Jet Crash Likely Caused by Need for Strong Relations Summary: President Vladimir Putin’s admission of involvement in the Azerbaijani jet crash last year likely reveals Moscow’s growing need for stronger relations with the few countries in its grasp. This acknowledgement will probably result in renewed relations between the two former Soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 479
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DOWNLOAD MOLDOVA: Russian Pressure Very Likely to Intensify Following Election Results Summary: Moldova’s pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) gained Parliament seats in the 28 September elections, likely strengthening President Maia Sandu’s European Union (EU) integration plan. This victory will very likely increase Russian pressure on the country. Development: On 28 September, Moldovan voters gave … Continue reading Eagle Eye 478
Eagle Eye 477
Download DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Cobalt Export Quotas Unlikely to Succeed Summary: While Kinshasa’s opening of cobalt exports will likely result in a slight short-term increase in the economy, the cobalt quota system will almost certainly have a negligible overall impact. Background: On 21 September, Kinshasa stated that it would raise the current cobalt export … Continue reading Eagle Eye 477
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Download POLAND: Moscow Will Likely Continue Drone Incursions into Airspace Summary: Moscow will likely continue to violate Polish airspace with drones as a to test security agreements between the North Atlantic Trade Organization (NATO) members. Despite the drone operations, Moscow will almost certainly avoid another significant military operation. Background: On 9 September, Polish officials reported … Continue reading Eagle Eye 476
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Download CHINA: Hacking Discoveries Likely to Encourage Malicious Cyber Activity from Beijing Summary: Beijing’s typhoon cyber-attacks presented a security threat to its competitors. The attacks possessed the capability to attack infrastructure, commit espionage, and monitor activity of United States presidential candidates and others. Beijing almost certainly will develop more powerful cyberweapons to replace the typhoon … Continue reading Eagle Eye 461
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DOWNLOAD JAKARTA: Reliance on Chinese Investment May Increase Under New Leadership Summary: Jakarta’s new administration may rely on Chinese investment more to pursue its goal of 8% economic growth. Beijing’s monopolization of nickel in Indonesia may prove problematic for Washington in the future. Development: On 20 October, Prabowo Subianto swore in as the eighth president … Continue reading Eagle Eye 459
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Download IRAN: Jerusalem Strike on Tehran Leaders Will Likely Escalate Ongoing Proxy War Summary: Jerusalem’s most recent strike on Iranian leaders will likely lead to a heightened conflict with Tehran. Tehran has vowed to retaliate, which will likely lead to an increase in the frequency of alternating attacks. Tehran’s retaliation will likely involve the use … Continue reading Eagle Eye 453
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Download YEMEN: Houthi Rebels Will Likely Shut Down All Trade Conducting in the Red Sea Summary: On 6 March, Houthi militants ramped up attacks, causing fatalities for the first time. This escalation underscores the growing threat posed by the Houthi rebels to maritime security in the area. Given the increased frequency and intensity of these … Continue reading Eagle Eye 451
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Download CHINA: Poor Working Conditions Will Not Likely Impact Cyber Operations Summary: A recent data leak revealed frustrations over working conditions within a Chinese state-sponsored private hacking company I-Soon. Hackers across the state will likely share these conditions and views. Despite Beijing’s increased cyberspace emphasis, the working conditions of its cybersecurity specialists remain lacking. The … Continue reading Eagle Eye 450
Eagle Eye 449
Download ARMENIA: Ceasing Participation in Treaty Organization Likely Part of Broader Shift Summary: Yerevan’s announcement that Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely prompt further distancing from Russia, a full withdrawal from the CSTO, and deeper ties with France. Development: On 23 February, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced … Continue reading Eagle Eye 449