EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
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EE-365Download KYRGYZSTAN: Reform and Change Unlikely Amid Rising Authoritarianism Summary: Ethnic tensions, democratic shortcomings, and corruption will probably facilitate a strong authoritarian government. This government will almost certainly seek to quell ethnic tensions, impede democratic reforms, and continue corrupt practices to maintain the status quo during times of political unrest. Kyrgyz Turmoil: The former soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 365
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EE-364Download MEXICO: Uncertain Future of Sonora Project Likely to Exacerbate Lithium Shortage Summary: Cartel activity and possible nationalization of lithium mining could threaten the output of the Sonora Project mine. Such a reduction could create larger supply shortages in a strained lithium market. However, companies interested in protecting the lithium supply chain might provide security … Continue reading Eagle Eye 364
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-356Download AFRICA: COVID-19 Will Almost Certainly Impair Security and Undermine Governance Summary: The COVID-19 pandemic will almost certainly escalate rapidly in Africa, further deteriorating human security, endangering governmental stability, aggravating territorial conflicts, and enabling Chinese expansionism throughout the continent. Spreading Epidemic: By 2 April, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported 6,234 … Continue reading Eagle Eye 356
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EE-353Download IRAN: Growing Uranium Stockpiles Will Likely Exacerbate Tensions with the West Summary: Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow beyond the limit set in 2015, signaling that the conservative parliament will likely not respond to global pressures to reduce stockpiles. Development: On 3 March, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 354
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EE-351Download UNITED KINGDOM: Uncertainty Following Brexit Likely to Continue Summary: Following the United Kingdom’s (UK) official departure from the European Union (EU), the UK will likely enter a period of political and economic uncertainty. The tensions created as a result of Brexit proceedings will likely increase, showing through potential issues in domestic policy and the … Continue reading Eagle Eye 351
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EE-350Download POLAND: Controversial Judicial Reform Bill May Agitate EU Relationships Summary: The passage of a controversial judicial reform bill in Poland will likely inhibit judiciary capabilities and inflame tensions with the European Union (EU). Development: On 4 February, Polish President Andrzej Duda authorized a bill allowing politicians to fine and fire judges who made decisions … Continue reading Eagle Eye 350
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EE-346Download SYRIA: Aggressive Turkish Operations Will Likely Exacerbate Territorial Conflict Summary: The Republic of Turkey will likely sustain military operations in northern Syria, aggravating territorial conflicts in northeastern Syria, weakening the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reinvigorating the Islamic State insurgency, and emboldening Russian and Iranian mediation of power in the broader Middle East. Enduring … Continue reading Eagle Eye 346