SYRIA: Aggressive Turkish Operations Will Likely Exacerbate Territorial Conflict
Summary: The Republic of Turkey will likely sustain military operations in northern Syria, aggravating territorial conflicts in northeastern Syria, weakening the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reinvigorating the Islamic State insurgency, and emboldening Russian and Iranian mediation of power in the broader Middle East.
Enduring Turkish Invasion: On 9 October, following the withdrawal of Western military forces, Turkey invaded the Kurdish-controlled region of northern Syria to establish a 20-kilometer safe zone. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan likely aims to repress the SDF and the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers an adversary and ally of the Kurdistan’s Workers Party (PKK), under the guise of the resettlement of 3.6 million Arab Syrian refugees in Kurdish-controlled northern Syria.
Ankara so far has failed to fully relocate refugees and displace the Kurds from the safe zone, in part because of its reliance on the Free Syrian Army (FSA) as a proxy to supplement the invasion. The FSA lacks adequate resources and capability in competition with the well-trained Kurdish SDF and Peshmerga. Turkey controls a mere 1,000 square kilometers between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain of the planned 16,000 square-kilometer safe zone.
Expanding Russian Influence: Moscow will likely benefit from the Turkish invasion despite a contentious relationship between its ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and nominal ally Turkey. Russia continues positioning itself as the primary reliable power broker for the Middle East, challenging Western regional influence. On 22 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Erdogan in which the two countries organized joint patrol routes of regions controlled by Turkey and within the proposed buffer zone. Putin negotiated a nonaggression pact between Erdogan and al-Assad, which will likely fail as Turkish mercenaries assault Tal Tamar and al-Assad reinforces Kurdish military positions. Russian influence in Syria expanded since the outset of the Turkish invasion, particularly as Turkish territorial control grows where mandatory joint supervision restricts autonomous Turkish incursion, despite predominately failed attempts to mediate relations between Turkey and al-Assad. Putin’s close alignment with al-Assad enables Russian access to the eastern Mediterranean through a 50-year lease on its naval base in Tartus.
Developing Iranian Ally-Proxy Network: Tehran will likely bolster its support of the al-Assad regime and al-Muqawama al-Islamiyah, a substate Shia militant group, through the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) and Hezbollah, to reassert influence across northeast Syria. The funding and logistical and military support that the IRGC-QF provides to al-Assad will continue to support counterinsurgency operations against IS and adversarial rebel groups backed by the West and Gulf States. Additionally, Tehran will sustain nominal control in the regions controlled by the SAA, which will likely expand with the newfound cooperation of the SDF and al-Assad without sustained military intervention. In the unlikely event of complete Turkish victory and control in northeastern Syria, Iran will likely combat the FSA efficiently in comparison to the Western-backed Kurds. Ankara’s invasion of northern Syria and the withdrawal of western forces from the region enabled Iran’s strategic level foreign policy goal to establish an effective land bridge from its most western border to the Mediterranean Sea. Iran can now more discreetly and efficiently supply its network of state allies and sub-state proxies in the Levant to solidify ostensible Arab opposition to Israeli and Western military operations in the region.
Deteriorating Kurdish Governance: Rojava, the ethnically Kurdish local authority, will likely continue to surrender governance over northeastern Syria as al-Assad and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) bolster defensive SDF military positions against Turkish incursion, weakening its control in the region. Furthermore, the displacement of over 100,000 Kurdish individuals and shifting focus of SDF operations to the north weaken its ability to counter insurgency efforts by the Islamic State in southeastern Syria. The degradation of Rojava before establishing a completely autonomous state will likely undermine the westernization of Northeast Syria, enabling Iranian, Russian, and extremist exploitation of the lacking authority over the region.
Revitalizing Islamic State Insurgency: The Islamic State (IS) will likely pursue restoration efforts of its land control in Syria, exploiting the power vacuum left in the wake of the Kurdish and Western military coalition evacuation of Rojava in an attempt to reestablish its caliphate. Additionally, the IS will likely continue its insurgency operations against the SDF in the Northeast and SAA in the Southeast in an attempt to broadly expand its presence in the Middle East. Erdogan also released and repatriated a dozen former IS fighters it detained to Britain, Denmark, Germany, and the United States, shifting the problem elsewhere, likely to force concessions from the West. Moreover, IS maintained insurgent operations despite the assassination of its longstanding leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, continuing frequent strikes against the SDF and SAA in Syria as well as abroad in western Africa and the Sahel.
Outlook and Implications: Turkey will likely maintain its aggressive posture and enhance its military operations in northeastern Syria despite international condemnation, intensifying regional disputes over territorial control. Sustained Turkish military operations and support of the FSA will not likely affect internal political sentiment in the short term due to the expansive cultural opposition to the PKK, a declared Turkish adversary. Additionally, the application of substate proxies such as the FSA mitigates considerable economic and human costs of conflict with the Kurdish SDF.
Russia’s status as a reliable power in the Middle East continues to develop as its allies vie for greater influence in Syria, exploiting Western and Kurdish withdrawal and capitalizing on lacking governance in the Northeast. Putin will likely solidify authority in Syria as al-Assad and Erdogan gain substantial land control in addition to Russia’s newfound access to the eastern Mediterranean through its naval base in Tartus, threatening and undermining NATO member states’ naval power with its mobile coastal missile defense system.
Iran likely moves to expand its extensive network of substate proxies and state allies to advance its opposition to Israel, the Gulf States, and the West. The establishment of a close coalition with al-Assad enables Tehran’s installation of strategic intercontinental ballistic missile systems proximate to Israel’s northeastern border. The IRGC-QF’s substate proxy recruitment program enables it to establish a highly mobile and extensive regional authority inexpensively, countering its adversaries in the Gulf States and Israel.
Troop movements of the Kurdish SDF to the North in opposition of the Turkish invasion of Rojava result in decreased coverage in the South and increased vulnerability despite assistance from al-Assad and the SAA. The rapidly deteriorating authority of Rojava hinders western influence in Syria, mitigating the effects of international dissent, counterterrorism efforts, and enabling Iranian and Russian influence to spread and fester in the Middle East.
The chronic instability of Syria enables sustained competition between primary powers in the region, increasing the likelihood of significant military conflict and diminishing the humanitarian situation. Additionally, the lacking international consensus on an intended outcome for the status of Syria complicates short-term actions to absolve the conflict and enables the lingering dissolution of a sovereign Syrian state.
[Riley Coder]
SAUDI ARABIA: IAEA Speech Likely Indicates New Iranian Deterrence Strategy
Summary: Saudi Ambassador to Vienna and the UN Prince Abdullah Ibn bin Khalid bin Sultan’s speech at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) session will likely persuade other nations to pressure Tehran until it cooperates with nuclear inspections, mitigating the likelihood of escalated conflict in the Middle East.
Development: On 8 November, Prince Abdullah requested during his IAEA speech that Tehran cooperate with nuclear inspections. The speech came after Iranian security forces briefly stopped an IAEA agent from leaving Iran the previous week. Prince Abdullah confirmed Riyadh’s support for the IAEA and stated that without retaliatory action against Iran after such incidents, Tehran will continue to believe that foreign hostage-taking holds little consequences.
Analysis: Riyadh will likely use the IAEA to put international pressure on Tehran to cooperate with nuclear inspections. Prince Abdullah likely commented about inaction against Iranian hostage-taking as a way to encourage other nations to join Riyadh in the struggle against Tehran. Tehran will probably refuse to cooperate fully with the IAEA, and further hostage-taking of IAEA agents will likely occur, encouraging Western governments and the UN to sanction Tehran. Tehran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA is probably intended to persuade its geopolitical enemies, primarily Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, that Iran possesses powerful nuclear capabilities that threaten regional stability. Riyadh will likely use Tehran’s disregard for IAEA protocols to diminish Iran’s image in the international community.
[Max Olson]
ISRAEL: Enhanced Iranian Aggression Will Likely Lead to Defensive IDF Strategy
Summary: Tehran broke its nuclear agreement and publicly stated its intention move forward with its nuclear program. Tehran, in response to Israeli military readiness, threatened Israeli embassies and military installations outside of its home country, which will likely drive Jerusalem to take a more defensive stance.
Development: On 6 November, Tehran stated publicly that it will move forward with its nuclear program despite international pressure. Jerusalem immediately boasted about Israel’s security and preparedness against potential threats from Tehran. Tehran also threatened Israel by attacking Israeli-supported soil beyond its borders, leading Israeli officials to believe that their military installations or embassies may fall victim to an Iranian proxy targeting operation.
Analysis: If Tehran continues on its current trajectory with its nuclear program and intimidation tactics toward Israel, Jerusalem will likely implement a more defensive strategy. Iran’s threats could likely serve as a distraction for Israel, drawing Israeli military attention toward foreign installations. If Tehran successfully accomplishes this, its proxies, such as Hezbollah, could attack Israeli forces directly under heavily surveilled zones on the Israeli border. If Jerusalem maintains its defensive stance it has against Iran, it may favor Jerusalem as it will have the ability to gather intelligence on where Tehran plans to strike next. With Israeli embassies at risk, Jerusalem will likely bolster its heavy Israeli military presence to ensure all its facilities are safe.
[Melea Tucker]
ITALY: Record Floods May Increase Demands for Climate Change Legislation
Summary: Unprecedented floods in Venice have caused large amounts of damage to the city, likely prompting an increased call for flood prevention projects and strong climate change legislation.
Development: On 18 November, flood levels in Venice reached 1.5 meters, marking the third time in less than a week that water levels within the city have risen above 1.5 meters. Italian government officials declared a state of emergency for the city on 14 November and approved $22 million in immediate financial aid, but the extent of the damage remains unknown. Venice’s mayor, Luigi Brugnaro, placed blame for the floods on both climate change and the incompletion of the delayed flood-prevention project, the Experimental Electromechanical Module (Moses). Experts stated that once Italy completes Moses, it will likely only remain effective for a decade or two due to rising sea levels.
Analysis: The damage to Venice and the potential for a higher frequency of similar floods will likely cause Venetians to call for strong action on climate change from Rome. Potential outreach or condolences from the larger global community may also pressure officials to further develop flood prevention strategies. To appease critics, these potential strategies will require both more time and practicality than the Moses project. Public frustration with current proceedings with Moses will probably encourage officials to look elsewhere for a solution or to find a way to quickly complete the project. The flooding of Venice will also likely spark a larger conversation on climate change globally, prompting international collaboration on a solution to protect Venice and other vulnerable territories.
[Alli McIntyre]
CHINA: Platinum APT Creates Nominally Vulnerable Backdoor in Computers
Summary: The Platinum advance persistent threat (APT) group, a hacking organization with ties to China, deployed a campaign named Titanium, which uses advanced masking tactics to infect Southeast Asian computers. The campaign will likely prove unsuccessful in obtaining confidential information or installing ransomware.
Development: On 8 November, a Kaspersky report revealed a campaign named Titanium by the Platinum APT that exploits local intranet sites to install backdoors on company computers. The campaign uses advanced disguising strategies such as encryption, legitimate dynamic link library files, and task installers to bypass antivirus software. Past Platinum attacks exploited a fundamental flaw in Intel’s central processing units called Serial-over-Lan to bypass the host operating system, according to a Microsoft report. Platinum used similarly advanced tools to hide activities in its Titanium attack. The recent campaign hijacks legitimate-looking software installers, such as DVD software, and immediately establishes a connection with a Command and Control (C2) server. The C2 server then gives instructions to install a Windows task installer, the Titanium backdoor, and a BITS downloader used to download additional encrypted files. The C2 server then communicates commands by attaching hidden data to basic file types such as PNG.
Analysis: The Titanium campaign by the Platinum APT likely poses little threat to infected computers and organizations because it uses rudimentary tactics such as tricking users to allow simple permissions to applications to install the backdoor. With slightly increased cybersecurity awareness, potential victims could recognize the Titanium campaign as an attack and avoid falling victim. The campaign most likely embodies a data collecting initiative to survey vulnerable computers. Previous campaigns exploited much more fundamental functions of modern-day computers, allowing for the attackers to access more information than the Titanium campaign. In addition to the possible decrease in victims due to increased cybersecurity awareness, the Titanium campaign will also likely prove ineffective in providing valuable information to Platinum APT. The Platinum APT attackers could have used more advanced hacking tools to implement into the infected installers, which could have resulted in a greater inflow of data for the attackers.
[Hayden Roszell]
BRAZIL: Criticisms Against Bolsonaro May Rise as Killings Continue
Summary: Popular support for President Jair Bolsonaro may decline as loggers continue killing indigenous people as he defends loggers and farmers in the Amazon.
Development: On 2 November, loggers shot and killed Paulo Paulino Guajajara, an indigenous land defender in the Amazon. Guajajara now serves as the third defender to die at the hands of loggers this year. These defenders, like Guajajara, patrol the Amazon armed to protect the reserves, which belong to them, against illegal loggers. Such protection prompted many loggers and farmers to threaten defenders and resulted in several murders. The federal police began an investigation on Guajajara’s murder, stating it will “bring those responsible to justice.”
Analysis: Popular support for Bolsonaro may decline in response to this most recent murder of an Amazon land defender. Should Bolsonaro continue to express support for loggers, despite the recent murders, criticism of him will likely increase and thus lessen his popular support; however, thorough investigations of the federal police may preserve public loyalty. Concerns may also rise for the increased violence against the protectors of the Amazon. If this violence against indigenous defenders continues on its increasing trend, it may inspire greater public concern against Bolsonaro. Now with Bolsonaro’s public support for illegal loggers, who have also attacked defenders, the indigenous people may feel threatened enough to take more aggressive action when protecting their territory.
[Brandon Carver]
