INDIA: Troop Repositioning May Strengthen Position in Peace Talks with Beijing
Summary: New Delhi’s repositioning of troops on the Ladakh border will most likely place the country in a better negotiating position during this month’s peace talks with Beijing.
Development: On 5 October, New Delhi shifted 50,000 troops from the Pakistani border to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a contested border in the Himalayas between China and India. This follows Beijing’s steady increase of troops and activity around the LAC. On 2 October, Indian Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane described the situation in the LAC as “normal for the past six months.” He later stated that “We are quite poised in order to meet any eventuality.” The 12th round of peace talks finished on 2 August and led to the disengagement of troops at Gogra in the eastern sector of the LAC. New Delhi and Beijing scheduled the 13th round of talks for the second week of October.
Analysis: New Delhi most likely increased its troop numbers to improve its negotiating position for upcoming talks with Beijing. The fortification of the border will probably allow New Delhi to address its disagreements with Beijing more aggressively. New Delhi expects a disengagement similar to that of the 12th round of talks, likely prompting troop movement in that area. In increasing the number of troops, New Delhi will most likely create the room to remove troops following a withdrawal agreement with Beijing, while still maintaining a larger presence in the region. Such a disengagement would likely boost international support for New Delhi, which would appear to be working towards de-escalation of the conflict.
[George Semple]
ECUADOR: Deadly Prison Riot Likely to Result in Civil Unrest
Summary: Government response to a deadly prison riot may lead to public distrust as it showcases Quito’s unwillingness to address Ecuador’s underdeveloped penitentiary system.
Development: On 29 September, a power dispute between rival inmate gangs led to the deadliest prison massacre in Ecuador’s history, leaving 118 dead and 79 wounded. In response, the government dispersed over 3,600 police officers to federal prisons to maintain control and order. President Guillermo Lasso also released 2,000 nonviolent prisoners following the riot to relieve overcrowding and deescalate the situation. Ecuador faced several other deadly prison riots this year due to its underdeveloped penitentiary system.
Analysis: Quito’s response to the prison riot, aimed at temporary measures instead of systemic change, may result in a loss of respect from both inmates and the general population. Development of the prison system likely requires dealing with prison overpopulation and a lack of prison staffing. Without new laws, more funding, and increased government regulation of incoming prisoners, Ecuador’s penitentiary system will likely remain unchanged and result in distrust of the government regarding inmate security.
[Dyanna Henriquez]
CHINA: Incursions in Taiwanese Airspace Probably Indicates Future Conflicts
Summary: Chinese incursions into Taiwanese airspace likely responds to increasing pro-independence sentiment and probably indicates the continuation of intimidation techniques and rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei.
Development: On 1 October, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent 38 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. The PLA sent 25 planes over Taiwan during the daytime, and another 13 followed at night. These aircraft included 18 J-16 and four Su-30 fighters plus two nuclear-capable H-6 bombers and an anti-submarine aircraft, according to the South China Morning Post. Taiwanese military responded with radio warnings urging the planes to leave and deployed air defense missile systems. Taiwan reported 145 similar intrusions within a year by Chinese aircraft, often near the Southwestern area of its air defense zone. These intrusions happened just before Taiwan’s Double 10 Holiday celebrating its separation from mainland China.
Analysis: Beijing most likely sent planes into Taiwanese airspace to warn Taipei against independence-leaning initiatives and express its desire to reabsorb the sovereign state and will likely continue with similar exercises. Beijing probably perceives the 10 October celebrations as an effort to grow pro-independence sentiment and almost certainly wanted the exercise to deter any growth in support. This sentiment almost certainly threatens Beijing’s sense of control over Taiwan and likely increases its desire to assert control over Taipei. Beijing probably views military maneuvers as the best way to quell pro-independence initiatives. Intimidation techniques like the incursions into Taiwanese airspace will likely continue, escalating tensions while Beijing works to reassert its dominance over the island.
[Ngozi Eke]
CHINA: Domestic Crackdown Possibly in Response to Expanding Foreign Policy
Summary: Beijing’s domestic crackdown on civil liberties may relate to its rapidly expanding foreign policy. Beijing may intend to increase control over the population inside its borders to compensate for the rising number of citizens moving abroad under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Background: On 29 September, Beijing further tightened the restrictions on video games, stating it no longer considers them pure entertainment and must promote morals and values consistent with the Chinese Communist Party. As a result, no new video games received approval in August or September, according to the South China Morning Post. This follows a slew of regulations since August, including limiting minors to three hours of video games per week, banning competitions and television shows that showcase effeminate men, and banning the for-profit tutoring services often used by parents to connect students with native-English-speaking tutors. Outside of mainland China, Chinese foreign policy has rapidly expanded under the BRI, including an increasing number of Chinese citizens are moving abroad to live and work.
Analysis: Beijing’s domestic crackdown may intend to compensate for the loss of control it faces related to the increasing number of Chinese citizens moving abroad. Beijing likely sees an inherent risk in allowing Chinese citizens to develop affinity for foreign attitudes. The recent restrictions likely intend to limit citizens’ access to ideals provided by foreign actors. Beijing probably hopes the BRI will deepen its international relationships and may intend its recent restrictions, primarily aimed at children, to create a more solidly pro-China workforce in the coming years.
[Alyson Martin]
