AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: Tension Likely to Increase Amid Fears of Terrorist Groups
Summary: Pakistani Ambassador Mansoor Ahmad Khan has expressed concerns over growing foreign terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The growth of such groups will likely create unstable relations between Kabul and Islamabad.
Development: On 21 February, Khan voiced his concerns regarding growing terrorist groups and tensions over the Durand Line, according to the Business Standard. The Durand Line runs along the border of the two countries, with Islamabad preferring fencing around it. Khan warned that remnants of many terrorist groups remain alive in many parts of Afghanistan. He reiterated Islamabad’s goal of seeking to improve trade and economic ties with Kabul. However, disagreements over fencing along the Durand Line halted the progress of diplomacy. Due to the growing number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan since the Taliban takeover, officials cite this as more evidence that the fence along the Durand Line warrants completion. Khan also warned that if groups like Al-Qaeda continue to grow without consequence, it will pose threats to both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Analysis: The news of growing terrorist groups will likely cause reactions by both Kabul and Islamabad. Islamabad will likely have greater incentive to push for the completion of the fence in the interest of national security. The reports of foreign terrorist groups in Afghanistan will likely cause fears amongst the Taliban as well. Should these groups go unchecked, tensions between the two countries will almost certainly rise. This will most likely delay any form of diplomacy between Kabul and Islamabad and may serve to worsen the Taliban’s unstable control over the country.
[Liam Black]
CHINA: Likely Increase in Military Presence Near Taiwan as Ukraine-Russia Standoff Continues
Summary: Beijing will most likely increase more advanced military dominance over the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea by performing more aerial and war-readiness exercises, exploiting what it sees as the Western powers’ focus shift towards the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Development: On 18 February, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Ka-28 anti-submarine helicopter and two other aircraft entered Taiwan’s southwest air defense interception zone (ADIZ). According to Taipei’s ministry, this represents the first sighting of the Ka-28 helicopter. Yue Gang, a retired colonel of the PLA, explains that the Ka-28 helicopter has capabilities of locating and destroying submarines due to its flexibility and speed. Taipei’s ministry is assessing the sighting because it has not seen Beijing use this type of technology in its war-readiness exercises before. Taipei is expecting to obtain eight to twelve submarines in the next 2-4 years, while it currently owns four active submarines in its navy. The Taiwanese navy confirmed that Western powers will aid in the construction of the eight to twelve submarines. The focus of Western powers remains on the rising tensions between Moscow and Kyiv.
Analysis: It remains likely that Beijing will exploit its perception of a shift of Western focus to the Ukraine-Russia situation to act against Taipei. Because of the use of advanced aerial vehicles such as the Ka-28, Beijing almost certainly will increase military capabilities over the region. Beijing probably is preparing to counter Taipei’s planned submarine capabilities, and, indeed, Beijing’s submarine locating and destroying capabilities will likely deter Taiwan from increasing naval capacities in submarines. Beijing will likely continue to increase countering Taiwanese capabilities over the region.
[John Conrod]
PHILIPPINES: Presidential Election May Cause Tension with Beijing
Summary: Former Filipino Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will almost certainly win the presidential election. If elected, Marcos may deploy the navy in the South China Sea to protect fishermen from Chinese harassment, which would likely cause tension between the two nations.
Development: On 15 February, Marcos stated in a televised debate that, if elected president, he would like the Philippines to have a military presence in the South China Sea. Marcos has 60% support in early polls, while the second-place candidate Vice President Leni Robredo has only 16% of the vote, according to Nikkei Asia. The South China Sea, specifically Scarborough Shoal and its surrounding area, remains contested territory between Beijing and Manila. In 2012, both nations had a standoff at the shoal resulting in a deal that agreed both would withdraw their forces. Manila withdrew its forces, while Beijing refused and denied the deal. Later, in 2016, an international tribunal decision invalidated Beijing’s South China Sea claims. Beijing refuses to recognize this decision and continues to both fish in the contested waters and militarize islands. According to his website, Marcos helped co-author a 2009 bill which defines the Philippine’s maritime borders.
Analysis: Marcos will almost certainly win the presidential election and may send the navy to the area of the South China Sea Manila considers its territory, likely causing tension with Beijing. Beijing would likely view a Marcos win as cause for concern. Additionally, if the Philippine navy deploys to the South China Sea, Beijing will likely view this as a provocation thus raising tension over disputed territory. Filipino citizens will likely call for this deployment to stop Chinese harassment of fishermen. If tensions in this region continue to rise, it could affect trade negatively.
[Dante Rocca]
MEXICO: Arrest of Cartel Regional Leader Could Escalate Violence
Summary: A joint government operation led to the arrest of the regional leader of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) El Fantasma, likely leading to an increase of violence among CJNG members and with the Sinaloa Cartel.
Development: On 12 February, several government organizations combined efforts to raid the building occupied by a CJNG regional chief under the alias El Fantasma, resulting in his capture. El Fantasma, arrested on charges of aggravated kidnapping, remains suspected of extortion, kidnappings, homicides, and selling narcotics, according to The Mazatlán Times. He trained CJNG recruits and acted as the regional leader in Zacatecas, Mexico, for CJNG as well as an alleged “generator of violence,” according to The Yucatan Times. Zacatecas remains a north-central state and a key location in drug-related activities and violence. The Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG’s main rival, primarily occupies that region.
Analysis: El Fantasma’s arrest might lead to an increase in aggressiveness among the CJNG members and between CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel. The Sinaloa Cartel almost certainly does not want CJNG cartel members in its territory, which likely creates tension between the cartels. The effect of the capture of El Fantasma will likely weaken the CJNG chain of command in the Zacatecas region, which leaves a small power vacuum. If the CJNG members argue among themselves, the Sinaloa Cartel might take advantage of their weakness and attempt to regain control of the region.
[Sierra Quesenberry]
UKRAINE: Disruptive Denial-of-Service Attack Possibly Hides More Damaging Malware
Summary: The disruptive cyberattack targeting Kyiv’s army, defense ministry, and bank websites probably acts as a distraction for a more damaging cyberattack.
Development: On 15 February, a cyberattack temporarily disrupted access to two state banks, the army website, and the defense, foreign, and culture ministries. The denial-of-service attack overwhelmed Ukrainian servers with traffic from locations across Russia, China, Uzbekistan, and the Czech Republic. Moscow denied responsibility for the cyberattack. According to the Ukrainian Information Ministry’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, “there is no threat to depositors’ funds. Nor did the attack affect the communications of Ukraine’s military forces.” Moscow used cyberwarfare against Ukraine in 2017 during the Petya malware campaign that caused over $10 billion in damages.
Analysis: Moscow could have used the noisy denial-of-service attack that targeted the government and banks to establish a significantly more damaging attack that it could trigger if it invades Ukraine. The denial-of-service created a perfect opportunity to install malware that may cause damage to computer hardware, disrupt national communications, or destroy Ukrainian internet-connected infrastructure. If dormant malware exists, it will likely cause billions of dollars in damage.
[James Chandler]
