CHINA: Solomon Islands Security Pact Likely to Establish a Military Base
Summary: Beijing and Honiara seek to establish a security pact with one another. This will most likely shift the balance of power and influence in the Indo-Pacific Region.
Development: On 25 March, Honiara released an official statement confirming the rumors of a security pact with Beijing. Rumors began circulating on 24 March when an unknown entity released classified documents that revealed Beijing and Honiara continue to close in on a security pact that will allow Beijing to move military personnel and naval warships through Honiara’s territory. The pact will also allow Beijing to construct a military outpost for security purposes along the chain of islands. Honiara previously established the Australia-Solomon Islands Maritime Boundary Agreement. Honiara’s statement reaffirmed its interest in keeping good relations with Canberra, but it will continue to pursue aid from Beijing. Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton stated in a press conference that Canberra does not want unsettling influence and they do not want pressure and coercion that they are seeing from Beijing. Dutton remains concerned that an establishment of a military base in Honiara territory will represent a high security threat to Canberra and Wellington.
Analysis: Beijing will likely agree to the security pact with Honiara to establish a military presence near Australia. Canberra will almost certainly interpret this security pact as a threat to the Australia-Solomon Islands Maritime Boundary Agreement and will most likely increase tensions between Honiara, Beijing, and Canberra. Since the location of the Solomon Islands lies close to Australia’s border, tensions will likely increase if Beijing establishes a military outpost. With the statement of the defense minister, Canberra will most likely take a defensive stance over the Solomon Islands.
[John Conrod]
AFGHANISTAN: Taliban School Closure Likely a Show of Power and Return to Old Values
Summary: After previously announcing the availability of education to all women, the Taliban closed schools to women above sixth grade. The decision likely comes from upper Taliban leaders attempting to revert the country to follow old Taliban values.
Development: On 23 March, the first day of the Afghan school year, the Taliban reverted a previous decision to let women over sixth grade attend schools. The decision came only hours after the school day began, forcing many women to leave schools. In the years before international involvement in Afghanistan, women could not receive an education. The Taliban have a firm belief that women without an education develop into better people, according to a leading academic expert. The Taliban believe that an education ruins women by giving them the ability to understand the world. Previously, the Taliban assured the United Nations (UN) that women would have access to education, in order to continue receiving funding from the UN.
Analysis: While the Taliban’s full intentions behind the decision remain unclear, suddenly closing schools likely indicates the Taliban’s desire to exercise its power. The initial decision to allow girls to attend school until sixth grade may imply a compromise in order to continue receiving international funding. The Taliban stopping education to women will likely receive support from men in the country who support Taliban values. In coming weeks, the Taliban will likely receive sanctions and calls for reform. Moving forward, reverting the decision to allow education will likely impact the credibility of Taliban promises to the rest of the world.
[Liam Black]
HAITI: Hunger Levels Likely to Increase Over National and International Crises
Summary: Haiti’s hunger levels continue to rise due to outbreak of Russian-Ukraine war and various other internal crises, despite persistent humanitarian aid. Rising levels of hunger may increase efforts to rebuild Haiti’s environment but also increase migration rates.
Development: On 22 March, the United Nation reported a rise in hunger levels in Haiti as political, environmental, and economic instability persists. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification reported recently that 4.5 million Haitians suffer in severe hunger with many in ‘emergency’ level of hunger. The Haitian people greatly rely on Moscow for imports and with the Moscow invasion of Kyiv, imports continue to decrease while inflation increases. Haiti suffered another earthquake last year and heavy flooding, causing the sustainability of Haitian agriculture to implode. However, the World Bank granted Port-Au-Prince a total of $132 million for the Emergency Resilient Agriculture for Food Security Project, and the Haiti Rural Accessibility & Resilience Project.
Analysis: The hunger levels of the Haitian people increasing will likely encourage the beginning of reconstruction of Haiti’s agriculture and environment with the money granted by the World Bank. However, this reconstruction will take time and may face many challenges due to the history of the environmental disasters in Haiti. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will likely continue to increase inflation and costs of living for the Haitian people. With the lack of governmental control, hunger levels will likely continue to increase, and this issue could cause an increase in migration rates of Haitian people. These events may prevent the full reconstruction of Haiti.
[Isabella Beiler]
AUSTRALIA: Sanctions Likely if Beijing Contributes Military Aid to Moscow
Summary: Sanctions on Beijing will likely occur if Beijing provides military assistance to Moscow. Beijing probably will continue to provide an economic lifeline to Moscow but may not provide Moscow with military assistance.
Development: On 17 March, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison used “abomination” to describe Beijing providing military support to Moscow, among other remarks about potential sanctions on Beijing. This continues a trend of tensions between Canberra and Beijing over economic issues, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Beijing’s stance on Moscow’s attack on Ukraine. Statements by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Beijing “will never accept any external coercion or pressure.” Beijing continues trying to balance its relationship with both Moscow and Western powers, according to the South China Morning Post.
Analysis: Canberra will likely place sanctions on Beijing if it contributes military aid to Moscow. Due to the risk of sanctions, Beijing will most likely not provide military assistance to Moscow in its conflict in Ukraine. Beijing will most likely not condemn Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, as it sees Moscow as a strategic ally and trade partner.
[Dante Rocca]
MEXICO: Cartel Leader’s Arrest Will Likely Leave Cartel Vulnerable
Summary: The arrest of the leader of Cartél del Noreste (CDN) Juan Trevino, or “El Huevo,” could lead to the collapse of CDN and the expansion of Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG), one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico and the enemy of the Sinaloa Cartel.
Development: On 14 March, a government operation in Tamaulipas, Mexico led to the capture and arrest of El Huevo, the leader of CDN. Since his arrest, CDN members attacked 38 government facilities (including 22 military installations), installed 16 road blockades, and lit several vehicles on fire, according to BBC News. Mexico’s military ordered the deployment of over 700 military personnel and four helicopters to secure the area. CDN controls territory on the Mexico-Texas border, and shares borders with both CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel.
Analysis: El Huevo’s arrest will likely weaken CDN, leaving it vulnerable to influence exerted by outside cartels, mainly CJNG. Recently, CJNG displayed patterns of expansion, and could aim to gain CDN’s territory through force. With El Huevo gone, CJNG would stand a better chance of success in that endeavor. If CJNG takes over CDN’s territory, the Sinaloa Cartel could take it as an act of war, leading to an increase in violence in that region. However, CJNG may attempt to simply absorb CDN’s members instead of attacking outright, similar to its strategy in the past. In that case, it would likely lead to a lower chance of violence between CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel.
[Sierra Quesenberry]
