CHAD: Nationalized Energy Assets Will Likely Assure Favorable Export Control
Summary: N’Djamena nationalized private oil assets, which will likely grant it more control over which countries receive it.
Development: On 23 March, N’Djamena nationalized all assets, permits, and authorizations belonging to an Exxon Mobil subsidiary, according to Reuters. The assets include a 40-percent stake in a project of seven oil fields producing a combined 28,000 barrels per day, according to BBC. N’Djamena possesses the tenth largest oil reserves in Africa and exports 90 percent of its oil, according to Al-Jazeera. N’Djamena exports crude oil to Beijing, Paris, Berlin, Taipei, and New Delhi, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity. N’Djamena expressed concern over the assets in the event of an “irregular operation,” according to France 24.
Analysis: N’Djamena’s decision to nationalize internal oil assets will likely allow it to control the destination of substantial oil production. N’Djamena will likely use these assets to leverage support from recipient countries. N’Djamena likely seized these assets to remove risk in an economy highly dependent on crude oil for its economy.
[Markus Weinzinger]
RUSSIA: Nuclear Weapons Likely Raise Global Concerns and Support Forces in Ukraine
Summary: The announcement to station nuclear weapons in Belarus likely serves as an attempt for Moscow to remain unpredictable while intensifying power in the Ukrainian conflict.
Development: On 25 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to place nuclear weapons in Belarus by summer. This move serves as a warning to the West after its continued support to Ukraine, according to NPR. Putin plans to complete a facility for tactical nuclear weapons by 1 July, but Moscow is already sending Iskander tactical missile systems to Belarus. These tactical nuclear weapons have short ranges and low yields but Putin made it clear that Minsk will not have control over the weapons, according to NPR. This announcement comes days after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow where both leaders stated that all countries should not have nuclear weapons outside of their borders and to recall any weapons currently abroad, according to the BBC.
Analysis: Putin’s announcement to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus likely serves as a way for Putin to remain unpredictable while bolstering forces against Kyiv. In taking action to send weapons to Belarus and build a facility for them, Putin is likely taking advantage of his ability to play the nuclear card while assuming he will not face severe backlash from Western powers. While reports predict that this warns the West against aiding Kyiv, Western action to remove support from Ukraine will not likely prompt Putin to reverse his plans. Putin may have surprised Beijing with the announcement. However, Putin most likely communicated his plans and released the statement with Xi for the purpose of remaining unpredictable. If Xi is coordinating with Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons, both countries could encounter global disapproval and tensions reminiscent of the Cold War.
[Savannah Gallop]
TAIWAN: Loss of Alliances May Lead to Addition of U.S. Territory
Summary: As Taipei continues to lose formal alliances, it may take drastic measures, such as negotiating to join the United States as a territory, for protection from Beijing.
Development: On 25 March, Tegucigalpa officially cut diplomatic ties with Taipei.Honduran President Xiomara Castro planned to recognize Beijing as part of her intent to “expand borders freely,” as stated in a Tweet, according to Al Jazeera. Once Beijing formally recognizes Tegucigalpa, only 13 official diplomatic allies will remain with Taipei, according to Independent. Beijing’s evolving threats of invading Taiwan prompted Taipei to take preventative action to prepare, such as extending mandatory service in the military from four months to one year.
Analysis: Decreased support from alliances will likely influence Taipei to seek official territory status from Washington to preserve some level of autonomy. Since Taipei previously implemented policies to support the territory, Taipei will likely implement strategies similar to the extended military service requirement. Taipei probably calculates that if it volunteers its annexation, then Beijing would encounter disputes with Washington directly rather than as an ally of Taipei. If Taipei does not enact military or political strategies to defend itself, then Beijing will most likely succeed in dominating Taiwan.
[Julia Rieth]
CHINA: Recent Diplomatic Ties in the Middle East Will Likely Amplify Political Leverage
Summary: Beijing recently succeeded in acquiring diplomatic policies in the Middle East. Beijing will most likely continue to embrace nations seeking reliance to expand its global leverage.
Development: On 25 March, reports predicted Beijing’s global efforts will increase to establish favorable ties to the nation. Earlier in March, Beijing successfully brokered an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reinstate diplomatic relations between the two nations after a seven-year suspension. Recent instability between the Middle East and the West allowed Beijing to strengthen its influence in the Middle East by increasing investments, according to National Interest. The Middle East’s amplified reliance on Beijing’s investments produced a massive political influence to hold steady cash flow between the two regions. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) possesses a goal of acquiring natural resources from regions such as the Middle East. Recent progress includes two ports in Israel and one port in the United Arab Emirates. Beijing remains the largest customer for Saudi Arabian and Iranian oil, according to National Interest. Beijing invested about $400 billion for the next 25 years in Iran’s healthcare, ports, railways, telecommunications, banking, and information technology for an exchange in Iranian oil supply, according to National Interest.Analysis: Newly acquired diplomatic relations between the Middle East and Beijing will likely magnify the developing political leverage that Beijing gained in the weakened region. Since Beijing demonstrated high success in taking advantage of the weakened relations between the West and the Middle East, it remains highly probable that Beijing will spread its influence across other weakening regions. The decreased diplomatic relations between the Middle East and the West will almost certainly cause the region to lose the ability to recover if Beijing continues to offer large efforts of assistance to the region. If Beijing’s BRI continues to implement promising developments in the Middle East, Beijing will almost certainly acquire high economic leverage over the region and use its leverage to motivate political decisions in the region. Since Beijing demonstrated success in evolving economic ties to political leverage in the Middle East, it remains highly likely that other regions will soon seek similar economic assistance and embrace Beijing’s political impact.
[Lauren Estrada]
JAPAN: Conservative Factions Likely to Support Cooperation with South Korea
Summary: Tokyo’s conservative factions will most likely not prevent a closer relationship with Seoul, according to a report from South Korean Ambassador to Japan Yun Duk-min.
Development: On 27 March, Yun Duk-min detected a change in the position of Tokyo’s various right-wing groups to support restoring ties with Seoul. In mid-March, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol visited Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to discuss trade, security, and historical issues. Yoon vowed to restore the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), withdraw a World Trade Organization complaint against Tokyo, and restore Tokyo’s privileged trading status. Pyongyang launched a short-range ICBM hours before the meeting between the two countries started into the Sea of Japan, making it the fourth missile launch of that week. Tokyo and Seoul removed each other’s trade statuses after a dispute over a 2018 South Korean court order for Japanese companies to compensate forced laborers for their role in Tokyo’s occupation of Korea from 1910-1945, according to Reuters. The conflict originates from Tokyo’s stance that it already apologized for its actions in previous treaties; versus Seoul’s stance that the previous agreements did not sufficiently acknowledge the forced laborers. Yun explained that the right-wing groups consist of two factions; one focusing on security issues and the other focusing on national identity. Kishida faces heavy pressure to listen to the demands of right-wing groups, such as the largest faction in the country, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), according to East Asia Forum. Yun said that the group focused on national security issues supports a cooperative relationship with Seoul.
Analysis: Tokyo’s right-wing political parties, especially the conservative factions of the LDP, will most likely not prevent Yishida from pursuing closer ties with Seoul. The conservative factions likely prioritize the national security dilemma presented by Pyongyang’s missile launches over the forced laborer issue. Seoul’s willingness to restart GSOMIA probably provides Tokyo with the most reason to cooperate with Seoul. The forced labor issue almost certainly will remain unresolved, as Tokyo’s national identity faction loses priority over the national security faction.
[Sebastien Bragg]
