TAIWAN: Chinese Refugee Case Signals Likely Continuation of Taipei’s Asylum Policy
Summary: A Chinese dissident refused to return to Beijing and remains in Taiwan while seeking political asylum. The incident follows a trend of activists petitioning Taipei for refuge and will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
Development: On 22 September, Chinese citizen and political activist Chen Siming arrived at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport on a layover, according to Taipei Times. Siming did not board his plane to Beijing and instead requested asylum in the US or Canada. Taipei allowed political refugees to remain in their borders while seeking asylum before. On 24 January 2019, Taipei granted two Chinese political dissidents’ access to the country until they found asylum in a third country, according to Taiwan News. However, Taipei does not have a formal refugee or asylum process, and its Mainland Affairs Council stated Siming did not have permission to enter the country, according to The New York Times. Taipei adopted a couple of international treaties regarding human rights but failed to bring the United Nations’ 1951 Refugee Convention into law, according to Taiwan Insight. Taipei attempted to create refugee laws in the past but never succeeded, according to Taipei Times.
Analysis: Taipei will likely continue to allow foreign political dissidents to remain in Taiwan, even without a legal process. It remains unlikely that Taipei will pass any formal refugee or asylum laws soon, following the historical pattern. Future high-profile cases of political activists seeking refuge in Taiwan almost certainly will continue. Taipei will probably only grant refuge to very few Chinese dissidents to avoid further straining relations with Beijing. [Brandon Chua]
RUSSIA: Moscow Likely to Increase Attacks Against Kyiv
Summary: Kyiv’s airstrikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Sevastopol in Crimea will likely cause Moscow’s forces to intensify attacks against Kyiv.
Development: On 22 September, Kyiv attacked the Black Sea Fleet headquarters at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Kyiv officials reported that Admiral Viktor Sokolov died in the attack along with 33 other officers and 105 total injured individuals, according to Politico. Kyrylo Budanov, Kyiv’s intelligence chief, claimed the attack left General Alexander Romanchuk in serious condition, according to AP News. Moscow officials have not confirmed the casualty count from the Sevastopol air strike, according to Reuters. Moscow launched multiple airstrikes since Kyiv’s latest attack on Crimea. On 25 September, Moscow launched an air strike at the Black Sea port of Odesa, killing four people and causing significant damage to the port and grain storage facilities. The grain storage facility stores almost 1,000 tons, according to Reuters. Moscow airstrikes hit Beryslav, killing two, according to CBC News. After the Moscow air strike in Odesa, Speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin commented, “These seven facts speak for themselves: Ukraine will cease to exist as a state unless the Kiev regime capitulates on Russia’s terms,” according to TASS.
Analysis: Moscow will likely escalate attacks against Kyiv due to increasing fatalities and injuries of senior military officials. Two officials with injuries caused by Kyiv’s air strikes will likely cause Moscow to retaliate, potentially using air strikes or harming the economy. The air attacks against Kyiv in Odesa will likely make it more difficult for Kyiv to export its grain products, harming its economy. Moscow officials stating Kyiv will cease to exist as a state unless Kyiv capitulates on Moscow’s terms, implies Moscow will likely increase its attacks to achieve this goal.
[Amy Bodenhamer]
SYRIA: Deadly Damascus Shelling on Civilians Likely Meant to Target Rebel Terrorists
Summary: Syrian regime forces launched a rocket onto a civilian camp, killing and injuring two. Damascus likely used the attack as a sign to local terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Development: On 23 September, Damascus soldiers, under the command of President Bashar al-Assad, destroyed a displacement camp by rocket blast, resulting in two civilians dead and two wounded, according to Al Jazeera. The community stands in the rebel-held province of Idlib, which anti-regime terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) holds control over, according to Rudaw. Assad commandeered other rebel provinces throughout the Syrian civil war previously, violating de-escalation agreements between Syria and neighboring Turkey.
Analysis: Damascus likely planned the shelling to intimidate HTS using a nearby civilian target. Assad likely will increase efforts to capture remaining rebel territory, and in Idlib, HTS represents a significant enemy to Damascus. Assad can likely expect a retaliation soon. [Linnea Carlsson]
RUSSIA: Armenia Likely to Shift Away from Collective Security Treaty Organization
Summary: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent comments about Moscow’s effectiveness in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely hurt other members’ opinions on Moscow’s ability to aid them.
Development: On 24 September, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hinted at a foreign policy shift away from Moscow and the CSTO. This resulted from the organization’s alleged ineffectiveness and insufficiency following Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive that reclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh. Multiple reports suggest that Yerevan wants to join the International Criminal Court which posted an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yerevan recently hosted Western troops for military exercises to “enhance peacekeeping skills.” Moscow denied failing to uphold Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty, blaming Yerevan for Azerbaijan’s control over Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the 2020 peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the responsibility for peacekeeping operations belongs to the Russian military.
Analysis: Pashinyan’s speech regarding Moscow’s betrayal will likely prompt Yerevan to withdraw from CSTO. Members of CSTO will likely seek relationships with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other Western countries. This will likely reduce Moscow’s influence in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia, further allowing NATO to approach Moscow’s borders.
[Jaydon Harris]
ISRAEL: Conflict with Palestine Likely to Remain Turbulent Until a Third Intifada
Summary: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine will likely lead to a Third Intifada due to increasing amounts of military large-scale violence.
Development: On 24 September, Jerusalem launched an airstrike on the Gaza Strip in response to the release of incendiary balloons by Palestinians, according to AP News. Violence ensued between Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestine during the Jewish New Year. Incendiary balloons most recently saw use in Gaza in September 2021, according to The Jerusalem Post. The IDF raided the Nour Shams Refugee Camp in the West Bank, killing two Palestinians, according to AP News. Jerusalem presides over the cities of East Jerusalem, Gaza, and West Bank; Palestinians living in these territories divide themselves between the two groups. The IDF imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip 15 years ago, causing Palestinians to suffer. Some 400 Palestinian children in Gaza currently experience a lack of healthcare access, according to LifeNews. Israeli forces in the West Bank have harmed more than 9,000 Palestinians, according to Al-Jazeera.
Analysis: Violence from airstrikes and military raids between IDF and Palestine during the Jewish New Year likely means that the state of unrest in Israel will get worse and lead to a Third Intifada. East Jerusalem, Gaza, and West Bank, controlled by Jerusalem, demonstrate that Palestinians almost certainly lack a sense of freedom.
[Michelle Malan]
CHINA: Reaction to European Union’s Concerns About Trade Deficit Unlikely
Summary: Beijing will likely not respond to the European Union’s (EU) concerns about trade imbalance after investigations of dumping into Europe’s electronic vehicle market.
Development: On 24 September, the EU’s Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis announced concerns about the trade deficit valued at $423.7 billion. Dombrovskis and Beijing discussed the investigations of dumping electronic vehicles into the European markets. “European officials believe that the share of Beijing-made cars sold in Europe rose to 8% this year and could reach 15% by 2025,” according to CNBC. Beijing responded to the investigation, claiming the distortion of the supply chain through a protectionist act.
Analysis: Beijing will likely not react to the EU trade deficit concerns due to investigations of dumping into the European markets. Beijing claims the investigation represents a protectionist act implying harm to exports and may indicate the refusal or retaliation of trade agreements.
[Stephanie Way]
NORTH KOREA: Crypto Attacks Likely Indicate New Tactic for Missile Funding
Summary: Nation-state hackers primarily belonging to the Lazarus Group will likely continue targeting cryptocurrency organizations. Pyongyang will likely use cyberattack theft to fund WMD missile research and further bypass sanctions.
Development: On 25 September, unidentified hackers illegally transferred nearly $8 million in cryptocurrency from U.S. based company Huobi. The transfer occurred twelve days after a $41 million virtual casino breach. Multiple sources corroborated a link to the Lazarus Group, according to CCN.The recent attacks totaling over $200 million in losses this year likely fund Pyongyang’s nuclear, according to CNBC. President Kim Jong Un discussed full and unconditional support for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine in a meeting with Pyongyang’s militant ally, according to NPR. The alleged arms deal meeting occurred despite the warned implication of U.S sanctions, according to The Hacker News. The country’s cryptocurrency thefts coincide with ballistic missile testing, including Pyongyang’s apparent desire to supply Moscow munitions for the war in Ukraine, according to TRM.
Analysis: Pyongyang’s recent spike in attacks implies an unwillingness to comply with sanctions.Attacks will likely continue to rise partially due to the limited repercussions hackers have historically faced. This spike in cyberattacks indicates the extent Pyongyang would likely go to ensure secrecy and pursue additional militarization.
[Ian Grahn]
CHINA: Manila’s Removal of Floating Barriers Likely to Heighten Naval Tension
Summary: Tensions will likely increase between Beijing and Manila after Manila removed floating barriers from the Scarborough Shoal.
Development: On 25 September, Beijing installed a 984-foot floating barrier along the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea (SCS), according to AP News. Beijing still claims maritime rights and other interests over Scarborough Shoal. Over $3 trillion worth of trade goods, including oil and gas deposits, transit annually along the Scarborough Shoal, according to Al Jazeera. Subsequently, Filipino President Ferdinand E. Marcos Jr. issued the order to remove the installed floating barrier. Beijing Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Wang Wenbin issued a stern warning for Manila to not instigate trouble.
Analysis: Beijing will likely reinforce its naval activities in the SCS, heightening both trade and military tensions among neighboring nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan. The installation of floating barriers seems like an intentional, strategic naval decision to potentially observe Manila’s political stance against Beijing. Beijing will also likely assess how the US will respond to Manila’s actions in the Indo-Pacific Region.
[Jungsoo Noh]
MEXICO: Armed Forces Will Likely Continue to Struggle to Regain Control of Chiapas
Summary: Drug cartel turf battles between the Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Generation cartel shut down the state of Chiapas. The Mexican Army sent military law enforcement to the area and will likely continue to make attempts to regain control.
Development: On 27 September, the Mexican Army sent 800 soldiers, National Guard officers, and police into Chiapas. This happened after a drug cartel turf battle between the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels occurred, the Jalisco New Generation beginning to take over the state, according to AP News. On 25 September, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador addressed that the drug cartel turf battles shut down electricity and failed to alert the Federal Electricity Commission to restore it, according to AP News. Due to the large amount of control the cartels held over Chiapas, the Mexican Army sent in helicopters to fix power lines. The Guatemalan Army sent around 2,000 soldiers and 350 vehicles to their side of the border, after reports that Mexican cartels entered Guatemala, according to AP News. Citizens held a parade for the Sinaloa cartel after they forced the Jalisco New Generation cartel out of the area. The Mexican Army plans to remain present until they regain dominance of Chiapas, according to The Latin Times.
Analysis: The cartel’s extreme urge to gain control over drug smuggling routes to Mexico shows the high likelihood they will gain more dominance over the border between Mexico and Guatemala. As the Sinaloa cartel gains the support of residents and continues to shut down the state, the Mexican and Guatemalan Armies to regain control will probably face greater difficulty in regaining control. The Mexican Army will likely need to send more enforcement to make citizens feel more at ease with supporting them and to stop the cartels. [Isabel Marley]
