RUSSIA: Riot at Dagestan Region Airport Likely to Cause Civil Unrest
Summary: Antisemitic rioters stormed an airport in the Dagestan region of Russia, likely causing civil unrest in the region and country.
Development: On 29 October, antisemitic rioters stormed a Dagestan airport. Rioters ran onto the tarmac and tried to catch the Israelis on the incoming flight from Tel Aviv, according to the Washington Post. Around 20 people sustained injuries from the riot, and police arrested 80 people who took part in the riot, according to The Guardian.Rabbi Alexander Boroda stated, “The conflict in the Middle East … has now turned into open aggression towards even Russian Jews,” according to CNN. The Kremlin accused the West and Ukraine of instigating the anti-Israel riots, according to Reuters. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly took steps suggesting increased concern that the Israeli-Hamas war could lead to ethnic strife in Russia, according to The New York Times.
Analysis: Civil unrest will likely become more common in Russia after anti-sematic rioters stormed an airport in the Dagestan region. The country could become divided over whether Israelis deserve a place for refuge in Russia. This type of division will potentially cause instability in the country. Jewish people in Russia will likely see more aggression against them, and this may result in supporters becoming more aggressive as well. The heightened aggression will probably cause more instability and civil unrest in Russia. With decreasing stability, Putin will likely try to calm events related to the riots and blame other countries to maintain a stable appearance. Putin will probably do this more because it could potentially harm the war effort in Ukraine if civil unrest and ethnic strife become prevalent in Russia. [Amy Bodenhamer]
SYRIA: Repeated Strikes by Jerusalem May Increase Risk of Regional Escalation
Summary: Jerusalem struck military sites in Syria near the Syria-Israel border, resulting in material damage and increased tensions with Damascus and its allies. The frequency of attacks might develop into regional war if continued.
Development: On 29 October, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) fired rockets at Syrian military installments and pro-Iranian militia targets in the southwestern region of Syria, according to the Jerusalem Post. The attacks resulted in material damage and allegedly serve as a response to Syrian shelling on Israel, according to the Times of Israel. Airstrikes on Syria from Jerusalem have become more frequent since the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, according to the Times of Israel. Foreign officials from multiple countries have flagged the possibility of a larger regional war if similar strikes by Jerusalem continue, according to Al Jazeera.
Analysis: The continuation of attacks from Jerusalem may escalate into a multinational war. Jerusalem will probably not cease attacks on Syria, which will increase tensions with Damascus and its allies Tehran, Beirut, and Moscow. An escalation could lead to more countries becoming involved and may intensify existing violence in the region.
[Linnea Carlsson]
ISRAEL: Conflict Will Likely Arise from One-Sided Political Involvement
Summary: The increase of on-the-ground violence and violation of international law in Gaza will likely result in countries rescinding support for Jerusalem.
Development: On 1 November, the Rafah border crossing opened, allowing dozens of Palestinians entry and access to medical care, according to Al-Jazeera. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has advanced on-the-ground violence and targeted Hamas’ underground tunnels, according to CNBC. Communication blackouts and airstrikes on refugee camps contribute to the growing displacement and death toll of 8,805 Palestinians, according to AP News. Jerusalem and Hamas both violated international law. Columbia and Chile recalled ambassadors from Jerusalem, and Bolivia cut diplomatic ties, according to AP News. The IDF exchanged airstrikes with Houthis and Hezbollah along the border of Jerusalem, according to the New York Times.
Analysis: Due to the border slightly opening in Egypt, more humanitarian aid will likely get into Gaza. Jerusalem continuing to violate international law will likely encourage additional countries to support Palestinians. Border conflicts between terrorist groups and the IDF will probably lead to open fronts against Jerusalem by Beirut, Sana’a, Baghdad, and Damascus. Due to Palestinian refugees, Cairo will likely announce their position against Israel.
[Michelle Malan]
MEXICO: Gang Ambushes Will Likely Continue to Disrupt the Lives of Citizens
Summary: Local gangs in Sonora ambushed citizens, military professionals, and police officers two days in a row. These attacks disrupted schools and the Day of the Dead celebrations, and the gangs will likely continue with the attacks to gain dominance over the area.
Development: On 1 November, local gangs ambushed agents from the state attorney general’s office on a highway in Magdalena de Kino, Sonora. Police officers chased the attackers into a nearby mountain, but the attackers escaped, according to AP News. The gang members left behind a truck, three assault rifles, and smears of blood at the location of the attack. The head of Sonora’s security department, María Dolores Del Río, described the attack as a “regrettable symptom” caused by her office’s attempt to take down organized crime in the area, according to ABC News. On 31 October, gang members fired shots and injured a police officer and four military personnel in a nearby town called Altar. They left behind a burned military truck and a civilian truck covered in bullet holes and spray-painted “vtasma,” the Cazadores gang call sign, according to The Washington Post. Both attacks disrupted one of Mexico’s most popular holidays, El Dia de los Muertos (the Day of the Dead). Schools close to the attacks canceled classes and bus routes, and city officials postponed holiday celebrations and ceremonies for fear of attack by local drug gangs, according to AP News.
Analysis: The multiple attacks that interfered with schools and holiday celebrations show the high likelihood that the drug gangs will continue to disturb the lives of citizens with sudden attacks. The blood smears, trucks, and call signs will likely gain media attention, causing fear to rise among citizens. The security department’s attempt to cease organized crime likely led to the attack in Magdalena de Kino. This shows that the gangs will probably ambush more areas in the state as the number of attempts to stop them increases.
[Isabel Marley]
RUSSIA: Moscow Likely to Launch Nuclear Strike on Kyiv
Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation that de-ratified the global agreement banning tests of nuclear weapons. Recent developments in Moscow show it will likely use this to justify launching a nuclear strike on Kyiv.
Development: On 2 November, Putin revoked Moscow’s agreement with the international nuclear test ban treaty. The new law withdraws Moscow from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, initially signed in 1996 and ratified in 2000, according to Politico. Putin supervised a military drill last month that included multiple ballistic and cruise missile mock launches, according to Fox News. General Zaluzhnyi wrote, “Ukraine’s armed forces need key military capabilities and technologies to break out of this kind of war. The most important one is air power.” Zaluzhnyi also said, “Without a sudden boost in technological superiority, there will most likely be no deep breakthrough against Russia,” according to Reuters.
Analysis: Moscow will likely execute a nuclear strike on Kyiv to end the stalemate. Moscow’s actions will highly likely erode trust in the global arms control system. Kyiv needs more advanced fighter jets, drones, longer-range missiles, and artillery in order to breach Russian defenses. Without additional support, Moscow will highly likely outlast the stalemate and win the war on Ukraine.
[Konnor Hopton]
