DOWNLOAD EGYPT: Cairo Likely Seeks Alliances to Help Deter Regional Threats Summary: Since mid-February, Cairo took actions to promote political and economic development in multiple African and Asian nations to regain regional influence, support current allies, and develop new ones. Cairo reaffirmed its alliances with Khartoum and Amman. Currently, it continues investing heavily in Kinshasa … Continue reading Eagle Eye 378
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DOWNLOAD NORTH KOREA: Persistence of Increased Cyberattacks Likely to Fund Nuclear Program Summary: The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) sponsored and conducted a series of unprecedented cyberattacks through the efforts of various Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups. The DPRK-sponsored cyberattacks will almost certainly continue and will likely escalate, reinforced by the successes demonstrated in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 377
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DOWNLOAD EGYPT: Pledge of Support to Libya Likely Indicates Future Cooperation Summary: A meeting between the Egyptian President and the Interim Libyan Prime Minister will likely lead to Egypt taking more responsibility in rebuilding Libya’s national government. Development: On 18 February, more than six years after closing its embassy in Tripoli, Egyptian President Abdel … Continue reading Eagle Eye 375
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EE-369Download MOZAMBIQUE: Escalating Insurgency Poses Threat to Long-Term Security and Stability Summary: The Ahlu-Sunnah wa-Jama (ASWJ) will almost certainly continue to escalate its insurgency as it gains legitimacy through a nominal partnership with the Islamic State affiliates, destabilizing the northern provinces of Mozambique. Government security forces will probably maintain the current military-focused counterinsurgency strategy, which … Continue reading Eagle Eye 369
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EE-366Download IVORY COAST: Incumbent President’s Removal Unlikely Despite Tensions Summary: Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara will likely hold a third term despite calls for his removal. Current opposition tactics will almost certainly fail due to ineffective protests, the country’s economic growth under Ouattara, and support for his presidency from military and other governmental institutions. Electoral Tensions: … Continue reading Eagle Eye 366
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EE-365Download KYRGYZSTAN: Reform and Change Unlikely Amid Rising Authoritarianism Summary: Ethnic tensions, democratic shortcomings, and corruption will probably facilitate a strong authoritarian government. This government will almost certainly seek to quell ethnic tensions, impede democratic reforms, and continue corrupt practices to maintain the status quo during times of political unrest. Kyrgyz Turmoil: The former soviet … Continue reading Eagle Eye 365
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EE-364Download MEXICO: Uncertain Future of Sonora Project Likely to Exacerbate Lithium Shortage Summary: Cartel activity and possible nationalization of lithium mining could threaten the output of the Sonora Project mine. Such a reduction could create larger supply shortages in a strained lithium market. However, companies interested in protecting the lithium supply chain might provide security … Continue reading Eagle Eye 364
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EE-363-1Download TAIWAN: Chinese Militarization Will Almost Certainly Raise Tensions, Prompt Conflict Summary: Due to its militarization, a growing independence movement, and likely increase in support from regional allies, China will probably view Taiwan as a growing issue and take diplomatic or military action to quell dissent. Longstanding Tensions: Beijing strongly maintains the “One China Principle,” … Continue reading Eagle Eye 363
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EE-362Download NORTHEAST AFRICA: Dam Construction May Shift Power in Nile River Basin Summary: Ethiopia may surpass Egypt as the regional hegemon upon completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo and Khartoum will almost certainly continue to oppose the GERD because of water shortage anxieties and mounting fears of a rising Ethiopian power. Beijing’s … Continue reading Eagle Eye 362
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EE-359Download BELARUS: Unrest to Continue, Direct Russian Intervention Probable Summary: Tensions between protestors and law enforcement in Belarus following the recent contested presidential election will almost certainly continue to escalate, especially if Russian intervenes directly. Current Tensions: Following the 9 August presidential election, protests erupted across Belarus over concerns of fraud. After 26 years in … Continue reading Eagle Eye 359