IRAN: Growing Uranium Stockpiles Will Likely Exacerbate Tensions with the West
Summary: Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow beyond the limit set in 2015, signaling that the conservative parliament will likely not respond to global pressures to reduce stockpiles.
Development: On 3 March, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran’s uranium stockpiles stand at five times the 300-kilogram limit imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal. Another report from the IAEA criticized Tehran for not providing access to two locations allegedly holding nuclear material. Iran also faces harsh economic sanctions from the West and Gulf States amid growing public anger towards the government. The sanctions, which came in response to Tehran’s defiance of the agreement, crippled the economy and developed civil mistrust of the government.
Analysis: The newly elected conservative parliament in Tehran will likely resist pressures from global powers to decrease its uranium stockpiles, exacerbating tensions with the West and Gulf States and effectively dissolving the 2015 nuclear deal. The Iranian government’s continued defiance of global pressures to end uranium stockpiling will likely result in the continuation of sanctions, further restricting Iran’s economy and developing the public’s economic and social grievances. As a result, Iranians will likely continue anti-regime protests in hopes of avoiding more damage to the economy but may prompt a militaristic anti-protest response from the government, furthering the social grievances that fueled unrest.
[Tim Fergus]
AFGHANISTAN: Proposed Prisoner Swap May Dissolve Peace Deal
Summary: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani rejected any commitment to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners, a condition of the recent Taliban-U.S. peace deal. The decision may lead to Taliban withdrawal from the deal, which aims to end the Afghan war.
Development: On 1 March, President Ghani denied any possibility of a prisoner swap following a peace deal signed with representatives of the Afghan Taliban. The landmark deal came after a week of reduced Taliban attacks and violence in Afghanistan. One of the several conditions of the pact requested that Kabul release 5,000 Taliban prisoners in exchange for 1,000 captives currently held by the Taliban. However, Ghani believes that Kabul has no responsibility to uphold the prisoner swap clause. The Taliban replied that it will not engage in any further peace negotiations with Kabul until the prisoner swap occurs.
Analysis: The Taliban will likely increase attacks and violence within the country as a result of Ghani’s decision to not comply with the agreed prisoner swap, which may lead to an abandonment of the peace deal. Increased Taliban violence in Afghanistan will likely lead to a breakdown in negotiations. Ghani likely fears that the prisoner swap will serve only to replenish Taliban manpower and further threaten Kabul’s tenuous control of the war-torn nation. The peace deal almost certainly cannot survive without the cooperation of both Kabul and the Taliban; therefore, a breakdown in negotiations between these two parties will probably lead to an abandonment of the peace deal.
[Max Olson]
COLOMBIA: Abortion Decision Likely to Shift Activists’ Focus Towards Argentina
Summary: The Colombian Constitutional Court’s dismissal of pro-abortion legislation will likely shift activists’ focus towards social reforms in Argentina and exacerbate domestic protests.
Development: On 2 March, Colombia’s Constitutional Court maintained heavy restrictions on abortion rights despite public pressure. Justice Alejandro Linares brought the case to the court to legalize abortions through 16 weeks of pregnancy after activists began protesting in Colombia and Argentina. The magistrates dismissed the case, arguing that abortion remains out of the court’s jurisdiction, but sustained the legality of abortions in the cases of health risks, fetal abnormalities, and rapes. Activists claimed that they will continue to push for abortion rights in Colombia with a particular focus on providing equal access to preexisting health services.
Analysis: The court’s decision will likely exacerbate domestic dissent and shifting activists’ focus on social reforms in Argentina. Demonstrations for social reform will likely continue and may expand throughout Latin America. Argentina will likely become the principal focus of Latin American social reform movements since President Alberto Fernández remains open to amendments, but the progressive objectives will likely face strong opposition from primarily Catholic organizations. Protestors in Colombia may gain traction in promoting equality of access to health services, particularly for women in low-income regions of Colombia, but will likely face opposition from conservative politicians and anti-abortion counter-protestors.
[Riley Coder]
ARGENTINA: First COVID-19 Case Will Likely Exacerbate Panic
Summary: The first confirmed COVID-19 case in Argentina will likely contribute to growing panic in the nation and may divert government attention from the worsening economic crisis.
Development: On 2 March, Argentine health minister Ginez Gonzalez Garcia announced the first case of the COVID-19 virus in Argentina. The patient is a 40-year-old man who arrived from Milan, Italy on 1 March, and is now under quarantine. The announcement follows the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil on 26 February, which led many in Buenos Aires to purchase masks and other supplies in a panic before the first announcement. As a result, mask prices skyrocketed as businesses struggled to restock them. Argentina also faces soaring inflation at more than 50% and holds debts totaling $320 billion.
Analysis: Garcia’s announcement will likely further panic citizens and may impact Argentina’s growing economic crisis. The alarm caused by the first COVID-19 discovery will almost certainly continue to increase demand for masks, driving prices up as businesses struggle to maintain supplies. Increasing prices of anti-viral supplies like masks may also impact Argentina’s lower economic classes, who likely cannot afford countermeasures at current prices. The new case of COVID-19 may also impact Argentina’s economic crisis by forcing Buenos Aires to divert attention away from managing the worsening inflation and debt issues amid the new health crisis.
[Gianna Geiger]
TURKEY: Military Operations Will Likely Exacerbate Tensions in Syria
Summary: Ankara’s continuation of military operations against Syrian forces may escalate tensions with Damascus, threaten ties with Russia, and intensify immigration into Western Europe.
Development: On 1 March, Ankara announced its next military offensive against the Russian-backed Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in response to the killing of 36 Turkish soldiers on 27 February. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to continue retaliation against the SAA until they withdraw from the region. Ankara does not plan to confront Moscow but expects them to pressure Damascus into ending the aggression against Turkey and its allies in Idlib. Turkey recently opened its borders to Syrian refugees, causing a rise in immigration into Western Europe.
Analysis: The Turkish offensive into Idlib will almost certainly trigger further armed conflict with Russia and Syria, signaling a shift away from asymmetric proxy operations. Although Ankara intends to preserve its ties with Moscow, Turkish encounters with Russian aircraft will likely counter diplomatic measures and raise bilateral tensions. The diversion of Turkish, Syrian, and Russian military and diplomatic resources will likely enable terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, to exploit power vacuums and spread influence.
[Mikaeli Davidson]
ISRAEL: Defense Minister’s Announcement Likely a Bid for Election Support
Summary: Defense Minister Naftali Bennett admitted Israel’s role in a previous attack against Damascus, possibly in hopes of garnering support for the upcoming election.
Development: On 29 February, Bennett announced for the first time that Israel led an attack on Damascus in November 2019. The unsuccessful attempt to assassinate senior Islamic Jihad official Akram al-Ajouri came less than an hour after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) killed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) chief Baha Abu al-Ata, sparking intense rocket fire from Gaza against Israeli civilian communities. The IDF and the government did not comment at the time of the attack on Damascus, while accusations against Israel came from the PIJ and other foreign reports. Bennett, who became defense minister just after the November strikes, made the admission of Israel’s involvement in an interview with a local news channel.
Analysis: By claiming the attack in the midst of his election campaign, Bennett likely hopes to garner more support through identifying and supporting Israel as a strong military presence. He probably made the announcement to present the army and government’s policies toward the PIJ. Although he did not assume the role of defense minister until after the strikes, he likely hopes to bolster his reputation by admitting Israel’s role in the attacks. However, his announcement might actually give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a greater lead in the election. Netanyahu will likely use the news of attacks to strengthen his public image of protecting Israel’s security, potentially bolstering public opinion of him and obtaining more votes.
[Sarah Reiter]
CHILE: Protests and Constitutional Reforms May Indicate Growing Democratic Support
Summary: Chilean reactions to proposed constitutional reform may indicate a transition toward a more democratic nation and reduced violence.
Development: On 26 February, Chileans campaigned both for and against constitutional reform. Recent polls indicate that about 70 percent of citizens support a new constitution, while 30 percent do not. Some Chileans see the constitution as the source of economic inequality, and a new constitution may alleviate tensions between citizens and the government. Protests in Chile started in October 2019 to fight against economic inequality and social injustice. President Sebastian Pinera holds an approval rating of 12 percent, which indicates dissatisfaction among Chilean citizens. Citizens will vote in October on whether a “Mixed Constitutional Convention” or a “Constitutional Convention” should rewrite the document if the government approves constitutional reforms. If passed, Santiago expects to draft the new constitution in one year and ratify its contents with another plebiscite.
Analysis: The Chilean plebiscite may help counteract violent protests within the region as citizens may feel their voices are being heard by policymakers, especially as the motion for constitutional reform will likely pass. A reformed Magna Carta may bring an increase in democratic principles and practices to the government. If the motion for constitutional reform passes, the months leading up to the rewrite and ratification will likely see the continued rise of tensions and intense campaign practices from policymakers on all sides of the issue.
[Autumn Champlin]
FRANCE: Cyberattack Investigation Discovery May Signal Growing Threats
Summary: Malicious actors targeted Paris’s critical infrastructure to collect information, signaling a larger threat as hackers cooperate to exploit vulnerabilities.
Development: On 3 March, investigators looking into the cyberattack on French infrastructure identified at least one person of interest. In 2018, a security intelligence firm HYAS discovered a remote access trojan (njRAT) inside Paris’ national power company. This malware allows hackers to silently run applications that collect information. The attack impacted Paris’s largest hospital system, an automobile manufacturer, a bank, postal and transportation companies, a state-owned railway, and several nuclear research facilities. Further investigation revealed that all of the infected companies provide Paris’s critical infrastructure, and only the water management sector appears unaffected by the njRAT. After system analysis and further investigations, HYAS believes that a group of malicious actors from Morocco targeted infrastructure through phishing campaigns. Recently, further sinkhole analysis provided investigators with an email address belonging to Yassine Algangaf, a successful freelance programmer and penetration tester. Algangaf acknowledges that the email belongs to him but states that someone hacked the account in 2017 and denies any association with the njRAT attack.
Analysis: The njRAT attack shows that information-motivated hackers are likely escalating in their methods to collect and sell information about systems essential to government operations, increasing the threats posed by these attacks. The motivation for such attacks can range from financial gain to “hacktivism” intended to advance a political or social agenda, and the complexity of the Paris attack implies high motivation by the attackers. If a group orchestrated the attack, this may also indicate that the growth in the ability of hackers to collaborate on sophisticated cyber espionage. This likely signals a larger threat as hackers continue to exploit vulnerabilities in local companies to gain access to critical infrastructure.
[Sierra McConnell]
