RUSSIA: Cyberattacks Likely to Cease Against the International Criminal Court
Summary: Hackers will likely cease attacks against the International Criminal Court (ICC) since Moscow most likely obtained all information needed and will instead use insiders to help carry out further attacks.
Development: On 20 October, the ICC claimed the previous Russian cyberattack it endured in September as espionage after new findings. The court revealed the hackers collected data involving sensitive information regarding war crime investigations along with images and testimonies from unrevealed witnesses, according to U.S. News. The ICC reports it receives daily attempts to disrupt its systems, and previously caught a Russian spy posing as a Brazilian in an attempt to infiltrate the court as an intern, according to U.S. News.
Analysis: The ICC will most likely see a decrease in cyberattacks from Moscow and an influx of insider attacks. With the information obtained from the cyberattack, Moscow will most likely utilize information collected to find documented witnesses to retaliate against their actions. Otherwise, Moscow may try to regain the trust of the witnesses or use threats to obtain more information from the ICC with the possibility of sending them undercover. The ICC will most likely strengthen its defense tactics as well as prevention methods for cyber or physical attacks from threat actors to protect the court and witnesses.
[Morgan Finch]
CHINA: Collisions with Philippine Ships Likely to Spur Conflict in South China Sea
Summary: Two ship collisions in the South China Sea will likely bolster the conflict between Beijing/ and Manila in the Indo-Pacific region.
Development: On 22 October, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel in the South China Sea collided with a Philippine transport ship. Two hours later, a Chinese maritime militia vessel collided with a Philippine Coast Guard ship. Manila claims Beijing intentionally hit the ships to block resupply efforts in the Scarborough Shoal, calling for a probe into the incident. Beijing continues to claim that the collisions were at Pinoy fault, facing accusations of blocking resupply missions in the Shoal on multiple occasions in the past.
Analysis: Manila will likely face further aggression from Beijing around disputed territory. Beijing probably believes the current Middle Eastern conflict will distract Washington and will likely seek to use the assumed distraction as an opportunity to provoke Manila. Due to Beijing’s continuous faulty projections and instigation, war will likely break out; stagnation within Beijing’s economy will likely fuel the conflict.
[Savannah Wright]
TAIWAN: Investment Talks Likely to Increase Amount of Comprehensive Trade Deals
Summary: The completion of talks on a more comprehensive and influential investment agreement between Taipei and Ottawa likely indicates an increase in the amount of future trade and investment agreements Taipei will sign.
Development: On 24 October, Taipei and Ottawa jointly announced they completed talks that began in February on a bilateral investment agreement, specifically a foreign investment promotion and protection arrangement (FIPA), according to Focus Taiwan. This represents the first time that Ottawa will complete a bilateral investment agreement since it revised its model investment agreement in 2021, according to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada. This deal comprises more than 70 provisions and offers some of the highest levels of protection, convenience, inclusiveness, and predictability among similar pacts recently signed by countries worldwide, according to Taiwan Today. Taipei signed many bilateral investment treaties (BIT) with foreign governments in the past, but Taipei currently does not possess a FIPA, which officials hold to a higher standard than a BIT, according to records by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Analysis: The completion of talks on a FIPA will likely give Taipei greater credibility when negotiating future trade agreements and will likely result in Taipei signing further comprehensive trade deals. This will result in greater foreign investments in Taiwan, likely causing an increase in potential aid for Taiwan by such investors. This investment agreement may assist Taipei in forming other diplomatic agreements with foreign governments. Although this likely indicates a shift in global politics toward political recognition of Taiwan, it remains unlikely that such recognition will happen soon.
[Brandon Chua]
MEXICO: Troopers Will Likely Struggle to Prevent Cartels from Targeting Police
Summary: Drug cartel turf battles in Guerrero led to an ambush that murdered 13 law enforcement officials. Mexico City sent troopers to the area to cease the violence, yet it may not prevent the cartels from targeting police officers.
Development: On 24 October, Mexico City sent 300 National Guard troopers to Guerrero in response to a violent attack on officials. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador described the incident as practically an ambush during his morning conference, according to AP News. During the attack, head of public security Alfredo Alonso López and 12 police reinforcements died after gunmen opened fire on them, according to The Washington Post. Guerrero’s attorney general initiated an investigation after finding the 13 bodies near a highway in El Papayo, according to AP News. Mexico City built a new military facility in the state last year, which upset the cartels. To show their dominance of the territory, the cartels continued to murder more than 34 police officers in the state and over 300 killed in the country. Guerrero now holds the title of the second most dangerous state in the country for law enforcement officials due to the constant turf battles between drug cartels, according to The New York Times.
Analysis: The increasing number of attacks targeted toward law enforcement officials shows that the cartels will likely continue to ambush specific targets to assert their dominance. The National Guard troopers sent to the state will probably struggle to diminish the power of the cartels. With rising anger towards the new military facility, the cartels may continue to attack the state, leading Mexico City to shut down the facility.
[Isabel Marley]
JAPAN: New Law May Remove Personal Rights from LGBTQ Citizens
Summary: Tokyo unanimously passed a new conversational law that may cause problems for transgender citizens who wish to change their gender in the family register.
Development: On 25 October, the 15 judges of the Grand Bench voted on a new law. The law states the removal of a transgender person’s reproductive organs to change genders is unconstitutional, according to Japan Today. The Grand Bench received this case after lower courts rejected a transgender person’s request to modify their family registry. A 2003 law considered transgender people to have gender dysphoria, causing five requirements for their change in gender on their register. To change the gender on their family register, one would have to receive a diagnosis by two medical doctors in addition to being a legal, unmarried adult with no children, according to The Japan Times. Another requirement details that the person must have their sex organs removed. Over 10,000 Japanese have officially changed their gender despite the new law, according to U.S. News. The top court mentioned one reason for this vote entailed the reduction of confusion in families, in addition to society.
Analysis: Tokyo’s new law will likely lead to more problems for transgender citizens. Not only will this hurt the transgender citizens, but it likely hurts the LGBTQ community as well. The new law may result in a decrease in tourists, especially LGBTQ tourists, which can hurt the country’s economy. The law may cause citizens to leave the country either permanently or for surgery. This could trigger a reduction in the number of citizens along with a rise in the number of jobs available.
[Victoria Hinesley]
