UNITED KINGDOM: Southern Cartel Likely Owns Seized Drugs
Summary: Authorities found cocaine worth approximately $12 million on a ship at Sheerness Port. A South American cartel likely owns the drugs on the boat en route to the Netherlands.
Development: On 28 October, the National Crime Agency discovered approximately 300 pounds of cocaine at Sheerness Port on a Panamanian-registered ship carrying bananas to the Netherlands. Officials found the cocaine hidden behind bolted-up grills. A specialist Metropolitan Police Dive Unit spent five hours recovering the drugs, conducting an underwater search of the ship’s hull in reduced visibility. The cartel placed four large carryall bags filled with cocaine below the water line inside the sea chest to conceal them, using the seawater intake area that helps maintain ship stability. Authorities believe the cocaine would likely exceed a London street value of $12 million once cut and sold.
Analysis: Sophisticated concealment methods, such as the boat originating from Panama, likely suggests that a South American cartel with significant planning skills and knowledge of maritime operations carried out the process. The high-value cocaine likely motivates the risk-taking behavior of these trafficking groups. This incident will probably have a disruptive effect on the involved cartel, potentially leading to shifts in trafficking routes or methods.
[Isabella Rekemeyer]
CHINA: Xiangshan Forum Will Almost Certainly Solidify Military Ties with Moscow
Summary: Chinese and Russian military officials gathered in Beijing for the 10th military diplomacy conference. Beijing and Moscow most likely strengthened their military alliance to overcome pressure from the West.
Development: On 29 October, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and fellow military officials attended the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum. Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of China Zhang Youxia led the flagship military diplomacy conference this week, according to the Cable News Network. Zhang stated that Beijing will deepen its strategic cooperation and coordination with Moscow. Beijing continues to participate in joint military drills among other security drills amid the Russo-Ukrainian War, according to the Washington Post.
Analysis: Beijing will most certainly deepen military cooperation and coordination with Moscow in the years ahead. The current military and economic tension between Beijing and the West will likely push Beijing to increase its global military presence through the alliance with its closest ally, Moscow. Therefore, the military alignment with Moscow will almost certainly remain robust and resilient.
[Jungsoo Noh]
TAIWAN: Opposition Party Collaboration Likely to Reduce Political Inequality
Summary: Collaboration between two Taiwanese political parties during legislative elections will likely prevent a single party from controlling the national legislature, increasing political equality.
Development: On 30 October, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP) agreed to collaborate to win more legislative seats in the 2024 elections, according to Reuters. The two parties said they wanted to avoid “democratic autocracy,” referring to the Democratic Progressive Parties’ (DPP) domination of the national legislature with 61 seats out of 113.At the same time, the KMT holds 38 seats, and the TPP holds five, according to the South China Morning Post. The two parties also agreed to other reforms, like requiring the president to report to the national legislature directly instead of through the premier and basing dialogue with mainland China; however, Beijing suspended this in 2016 based on the constitution and related laws, according to Focus Taiwan. The two parties will negotiate on whether Ko Wen-je, TPP’s presidential candidate, will endorse KMT legislative candidates, according to the Taipei Times.
Analysis: The collaboration between the KMT and the TPP likely will prevent a single party from winning a majority of legislative seats and will likely give both a more equal share of power in the legislature. Cooperation between the parties will almost certainly allow both the KMT and the TPP to achieve their agendas more easily. This likely means that dialogue with Beijing will resume in some form. Increased dialogue with Beijing will likely result in a reduction of Beijing’s military demonstrations near Taiwan. However, this increased dialogue most likely will not shift the population’s majority opinion away from independence.
[Brandon Chua]
JAPAN: Tokyo May Have More Human Rights Violation Court Cases
Summary: A new court case initiated by victims of Pyongyang’s human rights violations resulted in a victory in higher courts, which may result in more lawsuits about similar issues.
Development: On 31 October, Tokyo’s court rejected paying compensation for Pyongyang’s human rights violations. Pyongyang lured citizens to the country by promising a “Paradise on Earth,” according to Associated Press. Plaintiffs mentioned the government promised free health care, education, jobs, and other benefits in a program from 1959 to 1984, according to Japan Today. Over the years, Pyongyang forced the plaintiffs to do a variety of manual labor tasks. The victims of human rights abuse seek $900,000 in compensation from the courts, according to ABC News. However, the courts ruled against awarding them the money. One of the reasons for this ruling, agreed upon by the district court, stated that the statute of limitations had expired, in addition to the fact that the courts agreed that they do not have jurisdiction since this issue did not occur within the country. Tokyo’s higher courts later ruled that the Japanese courts do have jurisdiction over the case. The court agreed that Pyongyang violated the human rights of the victims by forcing them into horrible conditions.
Analysis: Due to the results of this case, Tokyo’s courts may deal with similar court cases. Tokyo may face more lawsuits along with compensating more victims of Pyongyang. This could also cause consequences for Pyongyang, as other countries may start compensating their own citizens who have suffered at the hands of Pyongyang. The ruling could also negatively affect the relationship with Pyongyang. If Tokyo wants to trade with the country in the future, Pyongyang may choose not to consider it because of its ruling. In addition, the court case shines a light on the human rights violations from North Korea, which can raise awareness of the issue. Living conditions in North Korea may improve due to the attention that the lawsuits bring to the country.
[Victoria Hinesley]
CHINA: Military Deployments May Influence Taipei’s Presidential Elections
Summary: Beijing deployed seven additional warships and 43 military planes near Taiwan two months before Taipei’s presidential election. Such projections could intimidate Taiwan into electing a more Beijing-friendly leader.
Development: On 1 November, Beijing deployed seven warships and 43 military planes near Taiwan. Taipei will hold its next presidential election in January, and President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) remains ineligible for reelection. The DPP historically aligns itself with the US, which supports the DPP’s pro-nationalist stance. Welcoming Beijing, the Kuomintang (KMT) party believes relations with the US will risk confrontation with China. Although disagreeing publicly with Beijing’s One China policy, the KMT views China and Taiwan as one cultural identity. The KMT’s nominee, popular New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih, states the DPP will take Taipei to war, whereas the KMT will maintain peace. Taiwan People’s Party candidate Ko Wen-je maintains a centralist position between the DPP and KMT and is negotiating with Yu-ih to form a united front against the pro-US DPP.
Analysis: Through military power projection, Beijing may seek to bolster presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih’s support in the upcoming election. If elected, the KMT would likely distance Taipei from Washington, which would play into Beijing’s plan for reunification. The KMT’s ideology regarding a unified China indicates that relations between Beijing and Taipei would probably strengthen. If this occurs, Taipei may deny US intelligence collection activities in and around Taiwan, which would include SIGINT facilities as well as aerial and MASINT surveillance around the island. If Yu-ih appoints a new Director-General of the Bureau of Foreign Trade, his administration may leverage Taiwan’s semiconductor industry to preferentially support Chinese industry, increasing associated production costs for the US and its allies. If Yu-ih does not win the election but can secure a coalition with Wen-je, their respective parties will likely command significant influence over the legislative body of Taiwan, and possibly hold the presidency.
[Patrick Bennett]
